Publications

Since 2002, a number of peer-reviewed publications have been developed that overview the technology offered by NextStorm, Inc. These are listed below by category. All of these efforts focus on using geostationary observations in short-term weather prediction, while more recent activities involve integrating satellite datasets with numerical weather prediction and radar observational datasets.

In addition, over 75 conference presentation have been given on these nowcasting subjects since 2002.

Convective Storm Nowcasting

  1. Mecikalski, J. R., D. B. Johnson, J. J. Murray, and many others at UW-CIMSS and NCAR, 2002: NASA Advanced Satellite Aviation-weather Products (ASAP) Study Report, NASA Technical Report, 65 pp. [Available from the Schwerdtferger Library, 1225 West Dayton Street, Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706.]
  2. Feltz, W. F., and J. R. Mecikalski, 2002: Monitoring high-temporal resolution stability using the ground-based Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) during the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma/ Kansas tornado outbreak. Wea. Forecasting., 17, 445-455.
  3. Mecikalski, J. R., K. M. Bedka, and S. J. Paech, 2005: Correlating satellite infrared trends, total lightning, and rainfall with convective initiation and development. Bull. Amer. Meteor Soc., (NOWCAST: Conference Notebook section), 86, 21-22.
  4. Bedka, K. M., and J. R. Mecikalski, 2005: Application of satellite-derived atmospheric motion vectors for estimating mesoscale flows. J. Appl. Meteor44, 1761-1772.
  5. Mecikalski, J. R., and K. M. Bedka, 2006: Forecasting convective initiation by monitoring the evolution of moving convection in daytime GOES imagery. Mon. Wea. Rev134, 49-78.
  6. Mecikalski, J. R., J. J. Murray, W. F. Feltz, D. B. Johnson, K. M. Bedka, S. T. Bedka, A. J. Wimmers, M. Pavolonis, T. A. Berendes, J. Haggerty, P. Minnis, B. Bernstein, and E. Williams, 2007: Aviation applications for satellite-based observations of cloud properties, convective initiation, in-flight icing, turbulence and volcanic ash. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1589-1607.
  7. Mecikalski, J. R., W. M. Mackenzie, and K. M. Bedka, 2008-2010: NOAA NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document: Convective Initiation. Draft Document, version 0.1. August 29, 2008. 33 pp.
  8. Mecikalski, J. R., K. M. Bedka, S. J. Paech, and L. A. Litten, 2008: A statistical evaluation of GOES cloud-top properties for predicting convective initiation. Mon. Wea. Rev.136, 4899-4914.
  9. Bedka, K. M., C. S. Velden, R. Petersen, and J. R. Mecikalski, 2009: Statistical comparisons between satellite-derived atmospheric motion vectors, rawinsondes, and NOAA wind profiler observations. J. Appl. Meteor. Climate48, 1542-1561.
  10. Siewert, C. W., M. Koenig, and J. R. Mecikalski, 2010: Application of Meteosat Second Generation data towards improving the nowcasting of convective initiation. Meteorol. Appl.17, 442-451.
  11. Mecikalski, J. R., W. M. Mackenzie, M. Koenig, and S. Muller, 2010a: Use of Meteosat Second Generation infrared data in 0-1 hour convective initiation nowcasting. Part 1. Infrared fields. J. Appl. Meteor. Climate., 49, 521-534.
  12. Mecikalski, J. R., W. M. Mackenzie, M. Koenig, and S. Muller, 2010b: Use of Meteosat Second Generation infrared data in 0-1 hour convective initiation nowcasting. Part 2. Use of visible reflectance. J. Appl. Meteor. Climat49, 2544-2558.
  13. Gambill, L. D., and J. R. Mecikalski, 2011: A satellite-based summer convective cloud frequency analysis over the Southeastern United States. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1756-1769.
  14. Mecikalski, J. R., P. D. Watts, and M. Koenig, 2011: Use of Meteosat Second Generation optimal cloud analysis fields for understanding physical attributes of growing cumulus clouds. Atmos. Res., 102, 175-190.
  15. Walker, J. R., W. M. MacKenzie, J. R. Mecikalski, and C. P. Jewett, 2012: An enhanced geostationary satellite-based convective initiation algorithm for 0–2 hour nowcasting with object tracking. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 51, 1931-1949.
  16. Botes, D, J. R. Mecikalski, and G. Jedlovec, 2012: Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) sounding and stability analysis of the pre-convective environment. Wea. Forecasting. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D09205.
  17. Mecikalski, J. R., 2012: Flying friendlier skies. Huntsville R & D Journal. Huntsville Times, Winter 2012. 18-20.
  18. Jewett, C. P., and J. R. Mecikalski, 2013: Adjusting thresholds of satellite-based convective initiation interest fields based on the cloud environment, J. Geophys. ResAtmos., 118, 12,649–12,660.
  19. Mecikalski, J. R., and M. Koenig, 2013: Application of high–resolution visible sharpening of partly cloudy pixels in Meteosat Second Generation infrared imagery. Atmos. Res., 134 , 1–11.
  20. Mecikalski, J. R., P. Minnis, and R. Palikonda, 2013: Use of satellite derived cloud properties to quantify growing cumulus beneath cirrus clouds. Atmos. Res., 120-121, 192-201.
  21. Gravelle, C. M., J. R. Mecikalski, W. E. Line, K. M. Bedka, R. A. Petersen, J. M. Sieglaff, G. T. Stano, and S. J. Goodman, 2015: Demonstration of a GOES-R satellite convective toolkit to “Bridge the Gap” between severe weather watches and warnings: An example from the 20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado outbreak. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., In press.
  22. Mecikalski, J. R., J. P. Jewett, J. M. Apke, and L. D. Carey, 2015: Analysis of cumulus cloud updrafts as observed with 1–minute resolution super rapid scan GOES imagery, Mon. Wea. Rev., In review.
  23. Apke, J.P., J. R. Mecikalski, and L. D. Carey, 2015: Use of mesoscale atmospheric motion vectors of cloud-top kinematic features to diagnose severe from non-severe convective storms. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climate., In review.

 

Lightning Threat Prediction

  1.  Harris, R. J., J. R. Mecikalski, W. M. MacKenzie, Jr., P. A. Durkee, and K. E. Nielsen, 2010: The definition of GOES infrared lightning initiation interest fields. J. Appl. Meteor. Climat49, 2527-2543.
  2. Matthee, R., and J. R. Mecikalski, 2013: Geostationary infrared methods for detecting lightning–producing cumulonimbus clouds. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, doi:10.1002/ jgrd.50485.
  3. Matthee, R., J. R. Mecikalski, L. D. Carey, and P. M. Bitzer, 2014: Quantitative differences between lightning and nonlightning convective rainfall events as observed with polarimetric radar and MSG satellite data. Mon. Wea. Rev.142, 3651–3665.

 

Combining Datasets for Enhancing Nowcasting

  1. Walker, J. R., J. R. Mecikalski, K. R. Knupp, and W. M. MacKenzie, Jr., 2009: Development of a land surface heating index-based method to locate regions of potential mesoscale circulation formation, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D16112, doi:10.1029/ 2009JD011853.
  2. Mecikalski, J. R., X. Li, L. D. Carey, E. W. McCaul, Jr., and T. A. Coleman, 2013: Regional comparison of GOES cloud-top properties and radar characteristics in advance of first-flash lightning initiation. Mon. Wea. Rev. 141, 55-74.
  3. Vant-Hull, B., Mahani, S., Autones, F., Mecikalski, J.R. and Rabin, R. 2014: Infrared satellite rainfall monitoring: relationships between cloud towers, rainfall intensity, and lightning, Int. J. Water, 8, 343-367.
  4. Mecikalski, J. R., J. K. Williams, D. Ahijevych, A. LeRoy, C. P. Jewett, and J. R. Walker, 2014: Probabilistic 0–1 hour convective initiation nowcasts that combine geostationary satellite observations and numerical weather prediction model data. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. In press.

 

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